Sunday, August 27, 2023

Oil: WTI Technical Outlook

Oil: WTI Technical Outlook
With U.S. job numbers for August landing on the coming Friday, this week could see additional volatility in oil as macroeconomic concerns cloud a market already facing uncertainty from weak Chinese demand and the fading of the initial bull fervor over Saudi and Russian production cuts.
Technically, the bearish momentum in WTI continued for a second straight week, to below the daily Middle Bollinger Band of $81.30, while the 50-day EMA, or Exponential Moving Average, provided support at $78,
For the coming week, a break below the horizontal support base of $77.60 increases the chance for WTI’s further decline to the 200-day SMA of $75.90. This support will be closely followed by the 100-day SMA of $75.20, which tends to distance WTI away the from 200-day SMA.
For the upside, WTI would have to reclaim the daily Middle Bollinger Band of $81.30, with a day closing above that mark, adding that this would then extend towards the previous week's high of $82.50.
Above this, $83.20 would be a minor hurdle before the critical barriers in the form of the 100-week SMA, or Simple Moving Average, of $85.75 and the monthly middle Bollinger Band of $86.75

“In summary, short-term resistance for the week may be at $81.25, while support is seen at $78.25, 


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