Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out the January 8 main top at $1619.60. Breaking back below this top indicates the breakout was likely fueled by buy stops rather than new buyers. This could be the first sign of weakness.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through $1564.40. This is highly unlikely, however, a break back under yesterday’s low at $1611.80 will put the market in a position to form a closing price reversal top.

Daily Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1617.70, the direction of the April Comex gold market the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $1611.80.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1611.80 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move continues to generate enough upside momentum then we could see a retest of the intraday high at $1621.60. Taking out this level could drive the market into the next upside target zone at $1629.90 to $1719.10.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1611.80 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a pull back into the steep uptrending Gann angle at $1604.40.

Watch for a technical bounce on the first test of $1604.40. If it fails then look for a potential acceleration to the downside with $1592.00 to $1591.10 the next likely downside target.